MLB · Monte Carlo engine
MLB predictions from 10,000 seasons of every night.
Every MLB game plays out pitch by pitch, ten thousand times — confirmed lineups, bullpens, weather, park dimensions, and the home-plate umpire included. When a lineup changes, it all runs again.
Last 30 days: 233–172 on moneyline — graded live, losses included.
How the model saw it
Sun, Jul 12 · Final
AZ @ LAD
monte carlo · 10,000 runs
Pre-game: LAD 67%
Final: 9–2✗ L
AZ · scored 9 ▾
LAD · scored 2 ▾
15 games simulated for the current slate — members see every one.
Last 30 days · moneyline picks
We show every pick.
Even the ones that miss.
Most sites show you their winners. This board updates itself after every final score — the good nights and the bad ones.
233
Wins
172
Losses
57.5%
Hit rate
405
Games graded
| Date | Game | Our pick | Odds | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | KC @ BAL | BAL ML | -164 | 1–6 | W |
| 07/11 | ATH @ CWS | CWS ML | -130 | 0–1 | W |
| 07/11 | CHC @ CIN | CIN ML | -119 | 5–3 | L |
| 07/11 | PHI @ DET | PHI ML | -145 | 4–2 | W |
| 07/11 | AZ @ LAD | LAD ML | -318 | 9–2 | L |
| 07/11 | CLE @ MIA | MIA ML | -161 | 4–1 | L |
| 07/11 | LAA @ MIN | MIN ML | -188 | 3–5 | W |
| 07/11 | BOS @ NYM | NYM ML | -144 | 4–0 | L |
| 07/11 | MIL @ PIT | PIT ML | -117 | 6–7 | W |
| 07/11 | MIL @ PIT | MIL ML | -145 | 2–3 | L |
Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. 21+, where legal.
How Prophecy works
A simulation engine, not a tout sheet
Most sites sell somebody's opinion. Prophecy runs the numbers — the same kind of simulation Wall Street uses to price risk, pointed at baseball first, with AI models covering NBA, NHL, and NFL.
01 — What goes in
Everything that decides a game
Tonight’s confirmed lineups, who’s starting and who’s in the bullpen, rest days, the weather, the shape of the ballpark — even who’s calling balls and strikes. If a lineup changes an hour before first pitch, the engine catches it and starts over.
Confirmed lineups
Weather & ballpark
Umpire assignments
02 — The simulation
The game gets played 10,000 times
Our engine plays the full game out, pitch by pitch, ten thousand times over. Instead of one guess, you see every way the night could go — and how often it goes each way. Player props come from the same at-bats.
Pitch-by-pitch play-outs
Every possible final score
Props from the same at-bats
03 — The cut
Only real edges reach you
Every day we check the model’s numbers against the sportsbooks’ actual prices. A pick only makes the card when it’s been beating the odds for real — and the scoreboard above is the receipt.
Checked against real odds
Picks must earn their spot
Losses count too
~79 player prop markets
Props from the same at-bats
Player props aren't a separate model bolted on — they fall out of the same 10,000 simulated games, one plate appearance at a time. If the sim says a pitcher works deep, his outs, pitch count, and strikeout props all already know it.
Batters
Home runs
Hits
Total bases
Runs
RBI
Doubles
Walks
Stolen bases
Strikeouts
Pitchers
Strikeouts (full alt ladder)
Earned runs
Hits allowed
Walks
Outs recorded
Pitch count
Game markets
Moneyline
Run line
Totals (O/U)
Team totals
First-5 innings
Wherever you bet from
The picks come to you
The dashboard
Every game on the slate with win probabilities, projected scores, player props, and the live odds they’re graded against. Updated as lineups move.
Discord alerts
Model picks and lineup-change re-simulations pushed to your phone the moment they happen — no refreshing required.
Your AI assistant
Connect Prophecy to ChatGPT or Claude and just ask: "who does the model like tonight, and why?" Full simulation data, in plain conversation. Works with any MCP-compatible assistant.
Tonight's slate is already simulated.
See every game's distribution, picks, and props — free for a week.